The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has projected that airline profits globally will drop by nearly 50 percent in 2026, citing the escalating Middle East crisis and sustained high fuel costs.
In its latest industry outlook, IATA said combined net profits for airlines could fall from an estimated $31 billion in 2025 to under $16 billion in 2026 if current trends continue. Prolonged airspace closures over conflict zones and rising jet fuel prices are squeezing margins across all regions.
“Carriers are facing a double shock — geopolitical instability and energy inflation,” IATA’s Director-General said. Nigerian operators, already struggling with forex and maintenance costs, may be forced to raise fares further.
Industry analysts warn that smaller African airlines could be the hardest hit, with possible route cuts and reduced fleet utilization.
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