ABUJA – Nigeria’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to China are expected to decline significantly this year as China accelerates domestic gas production, reducing its reliance on imported gas and reshaping global LNG trade dynamics.
China, a major LNG importer, has substantially increased its shale gas output, particularly from the Sichuan and Shanxi basins, with production reaching 22.1 billion cubic meters in November 2025 alone—a 7.1% year-on-year rise.
According to energy analytics firm Kpler, China’s total gas production is projected to rise to 278.5 billion cubic meters in 2026, driven by rapid shale gas expansion. This surge in domestic supply is already impacting LNG imports, which fell to a six-year low in 2025.
The shift poses a direct challenge to Nigeria, which has increasingly relied on China as a key export destination for its LNG amid efforts to diversify energy trade partnerships and attract investment in projects like the Ogidigben Gas Revolution Industrial Park.
Analysts warn that China’s strategic move toward energy self-sufficiency could shrink Nigeria’s export revenues, exacerbate trade imbalances, and expose vulnerabilities in Nigeria’s import-dependent economy.
Compounding the situation, China is also boosting pipeline gas imports from Russia via the Power of Siberia pipeline and reducing purchases from other suppliers, further dampening demand for seaborne LNG.
While global LNG demand from other regions may partly offset the decline, Nigeria faces intensified competition and potential price pressures as new LNG capacity from the United States and Qatar enters the market later this decade.
Economists have long cautioned against Nigeria’s heavy import reliance on China, noting that supply chain disruptions could trigger inflation and economic instability in Nigeria.
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Disclaimer: This analysis is based on energy market reports and trade data. Future LNG demand may be influenced by geopolitics, pricing, and alternative markets.
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