The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised upward its growth projection for Nigeria’s economy to 4.4% in 2026, according to its January 2026 World Economic Outlook Update.
The Fund cited improved macroeconomic conditions and continued reform momentum as key drivers behind the upgrade, which represents a 0.2 percentage point increase from its October 2025 forecast.
Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow steadily from 4.1% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025 before reaching 4.4% in 2026, aligning with a broader recovery across sub-Saharan Africa where growth is expected to hit 4.6% in 2026.
While noting the positive outlook, the IMF highlighted risks including geopolitical tensions, trade protectionism, and high public debt, urging Nigerian authorities to maintain fiscal discipline, advance structural reforms, and preserve central bank independence to sustain growth.
Energy prices, particularly oil, remain a critical factor, with projections of a 7% decline in energy commodity prices in 2026 tempered by OPEC+ production management and strategic stockpiling.
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Disclaimer:
This report is based on the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Update. Economic projections are subject to change based on domestic and global developments.
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